TEHRAN- A new analysis by Mel Gurtov, professor emeritus at Portland State University, warns that Donald Trump’s assumptions about the war with Iran have all proven wrong. Despite a naval blockade, Iran’s economy has bent but not broken.

Tehran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz and maintains its drone and missile capabilities for retaliation.

While Trump claims a ceasefire deal is near, the reality points to escalating confrontation. The US has seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait, has blocked some vessels from Iranian ports, and Trump has threatened to target “every single power plant and bridge” in Iran. US officials have justified attacks on civilian infrastructure as “co-mingled” with military use, dismissing war crime concerns. Meanwhile, Iran has closed the Strait again and accused Washington of piracy.

Gurtov describes Trump’s recent statements as “crazy talk, detached from reality.” Iran has denied any such agreement. The key obstacles remain: the US blockade, Iran’s closure of the Strait, and the future of enriched uranium. A realistic path, Gurtov argues, would mirror the 2015 nuclear deal: Iran limits enrichment to 3.67% and accepts inspections, while the US gradually lifts sanctions and ends the blockade.

Such an agreement, the analysis concludes, would merely restore the pre-war status quo — proving Trump’s war was needless, a terrible sacrifice of lives and economy. The author questions whether Trump can swallow his ego and acknowledge Obama’s diplomatic success.